Trading as a game of probabilities –
The more I look at the stock market, the more I realise that trading is a game of probabilities.. you are never sure what the market will do, you can only make an educated guess as to what may happen and then hope that the market goes your way. If you’ve an edge, then you have a chance of making it as a successful trader.
Anyway, my trade today was a long at 96.37 as I saw the price action bounce off the bottom of the range which I identified… the market had hit the bottom line 3 times and as a lower top boundary, I figured 96.90 would be a good exit.. this is the evaluation of the probability that is going on in my head.. I am seeing the market hit the bottom of the range 3 times and each time, it went up….
Should it break the range at the bottom, a short trade and if it broke the top, a long.
Soon after, the market fell and hit my stop at 99.95 and initiated a short trade. My initial trade got hit for -42 however… let’s see if my short trade hits target which I’ve set as 95.15
